Global shale oil production is expected to more than double between 2015 and 2040.
The world will see an an increase from 4.98 million barrels per day (b/d) last year to 10.36 million b/d in 2040, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
It states most of the projected increase will come from the US, with much of the rest coming from nations such as Russia, Canada and Argentina that have significant shale oil resources and existing, developed oil industries.
The US has however seen a fall in production, from 4.6 million b/d in March 2015 to 4.1 million b/d in June this year. The figure is expected to grow to 7.1 million b/d by 2040.
Canada also saw a reduction in shale oil production, falling from 0.45 million b/d in December 2014 to 0.36 million b/d in January this year while Argentina is still in the early stages of commercial production. The nation produced 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2015.
It is expected to double by 2020 and reach 0.69 million b/d by 2040.
The EIA stated: “Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Australia and other countries that hold large technically recoverable tight oil resources had not yet reached commercial production of tight oil in 2015. As oil prices increase after 2020, they are expected to contribute 18% – or the combined equivalent of 1.8 million b/d – of the projected total world tight oil production of 10.36 million b/d by 2040.”